Yields on Government Bonds in Major Developed Economies
1. United States: The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 4.75% on the 18th, the highest level since January 2025. It has since fallen back to approximately 4.69%.
2. Japan: The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached 2.94% on the 18th, the highest level since September 1996. It has since fallen back to approximately 2.89%.
3. Germany: The yield on 10-year German government bonds rose to 3.26% on the 18th, the highest level since May 2011. It remains stable at a high level.
4. France: The yield on 10-year French government bonds rose to 4.12% on the 18th, the highest level since October 2008. It remains stable at a high level.
5. United Kingdom: The yield on 10-year UK government bonds rose to 5.079% on the 18th, the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. It has since fallen back to approximately 5.06%. Market Views
1. Goldman Sachs: Fiscal policy, inflation, and corporate bond issuance are all exerting downward pressure, and long-term US Treasury yields still face upside risks.
2. Bank of America: Warnings are sounding for a disorderly rise in global bond yields, now the second-largest tail risk after the AI bubble.
3. Capital Economics: The global bond market may continue to face significant volatility as the room for adjustment in fiscal and monetary policies is limited.
4. BlackRock: The global bond market is undergoing a structural "reset," with investors demanding higher term premiums, thus continuing to underweight developed market government bonds.
5. JPMorgan Chase: High debt levels in the US and Japan mean that if long-term interest rates continue to exceed economic growth rates, debt costs will deteriorate rapidly.
6. Yardeni Research: This round of bond market sell-off may repeat the scenario of 2023. If the economy and inflation cool down, high yields may actually become a buying opportunity for bonds.
7. State Street Global Advisors: A significant and sustained rise in global bond yields would impact long-term growth stocks, most of which have high growth forecasts for the more distant future.
8. BTIG: The stock market may not be fully prepared for a rapid rise in the 30-year US Treasury yield towards 6%. If this does occur, it could put significant pressure on stock valuations.
9. Capital.com: This round of global bond sell-offs is driven by persistent inflation risks, massive government borrowing, and increasingly fierce competition for capital, rather than simply a sharp rise in expected inflation itself.
