A war initially expected to last only a few days, or even less than a month, is gradually approaching six months. The current risk to the market is that Iran may delay any hope of a deal until the end of US President Trump's term. Here are the potential implications of this scenario:
1. Markets Abandon Expectations of a Quick Victory: Financial markets are no longer betting on a quick end to the war, but have not fully priced in a scenario that could last until the end of Trump's term (January 2029). An advisor to the Iranian parliamentary speaker stated this week that Trump will not reach an agreement with Iran, and Iran will "accompany" him, but not before a real agreement is reached before the end of Trump's term.
2. Markets Forced to Reprice: Markets recognize that a war potentially lasting until January 2029 is not necessarily a negative factor, giving markets, businesses, and households more time to adjust their expectations and actions. Adapting to continued supply disruptions of oil and refined products is crucial, and oil and product market curves will adjust accordingly to reflect higher and longer prices.
3. Gulf States Forced to Develop Alternatives: Gulf states will gain time to re-evaluate the entry of their energy products into the global market. This could include: 1) attempts to circumvent Iranian military presence in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) accelerating plans to bypass the strait; and/or 3) reaching agreements with Iran in exchange for cash or gold for safe passage of ships. Alternative routes for some countries are already well-developed.
4. Iran May Increase Pressure on Energy and Shipping
Iran is likely to block the outflow of oil and refined products that once passed freely through the strait. For Iran, maintaining leverage means ensuring reduced energy outflows and restricted shipping and oil flows. This presents an opportunity for Iran to reduce US influence in the Gulf region and exert its own power there.
5. US Geopolitical Credibility May Be Damaged
If the impression is that "the US is unable to protect not only its own interests but also those of its allies," this would undoubtedly be a negative signal for countries already concerned about US foreign policy. Trump's actions on Venezuela and its oil, his push for Canada to become the 51st state, his ambitions for Greenland, and his indecisiveness on NATO do little to improve this situation. Parties may attempt to bypass the US and build new alliances. This trend is already evident in the economic sphere, especially after Trump implemented tariff policies last year.
6. The Impact of the US-Iran Stalemate May Spill Over
If the US struggles to contain Iran, geopolitical risks related to Russia and other countries could also increase. A key signal from last year's tariffs was that America's former allies can only rely on themselves; the era of "trade policy serving foreign policy and global security goals" is fading.
7. The Petrodollar Cycle Faces Uncertainty
The circulation of petrodollars has been a vital component of the global financial system for decades. While the dollar will remain dominant for the next few years, petrodollar flows may become less stable and more prone to shifting. Concerns about US political stability and its security in the region make petrodollars more likely to flow towards diversification and potential alternatives.
