Three Fed officials dissented at the July meeting, arguing for a hike because
core inflation was 2.6%—well above the 2% target. August data have weakened that
rationale: core CPI (ex food and energy) rose 2.5% YoY in July, the weakest
since Mar 2021, and July payrolls showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. CITIGROUP US
chief economist Andrew Hollenhorst said those prints will make it difficult for
the minutes to materially raise the market’s reduced odds of further rate hikes.
The minutes should still clarify how large the Fed’s internal “hawk” vs “dove”
The split was at the July meeting and may reveal how officials plan to define and
assess inflation pressures going forward. JP Morgan chief US economist Michael
Feroli said the minutes could show how much tolerance FOMC members have for
inflation above the target.
