Japan July merchandise trade balance (non-seasonally adjusted) -634.5 bln yen, vs. -680.0 bln expected. June trade balance revised from -406.9 bln to -409.9 bln.

Domestic News: 1. The "15th Five-Year Plan for Universal Medical Security" was released. 2. Unitree Robotics' stock price surged 460.34% on its first day of trading, reaching a market capitalization of approximately 341.8 billion yuan. 3. The Chang'e-7 lunar probe and rocket assembly completed vertical transport and will be launched at an opportune time. 4. The EU launched a cross-border investigation against JD.com; the Ministry of Justice responded that it constituted improper extraterritorial jurisdiction. 5. The National Development and Reform Commission convened a meeting on the coordination and scheduling mechanism for major projects under the "Six Networks" framework, improving the working mechanism for promoting the "Six Networks Collaboration." 6. The China Gold Association issued a solemn statement stating that my country's gold industry chain is complete and possesses sufficient resilience to withstand external risks. International News: 1. The US federal government debt surpassed $40 trillion. 2. Samsung's chip manufacturing prices are reportedly rising by up to 15%. 3. Trump stated that he expects to meet with Kim Jong-un later this year. 4. OpenAI CFO: The company will go public in 2027 or earlier. 5. SK Hynix: Will purchase 40 trillion won worth of treasury shares to reward shareholders. 6. At Trump's request, the joint US-South Korea military exercises ended early, with the training schedule shortened by about half. 7. The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is soliciting public comments on launching computing power derivatives contracts. 8. The US Treasury Department plans to double its share buyback program to $4 billion to curb soaring Treasury yields. 9. Moderna/Merck's new cancer vaccine can prevent melanoma recurrence; Moderna surged 177%, adding $44 billion to its market capitalization. 10. The US dollar index fell sharply, spot gold rose above $4,500 for the first time since June 4, and spot silver rose more than 5%. 11. Trump suspended the 50% tariff increase on Canada for three days. It is understood that the US-Canada trade agreement proposes to halve steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% and reduce automobile tariffs to 15%. 12. Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: "Several" officials believed that interest rates would need to be raised if inflation failed to decline. "Most" officials still expect inflation to gradually decline, but acknowledged the risk of persistently high inflation. Participants discussed the high valuations of AI-related companies and the volatility risk in Treasury bonds. Warsh pushed for a reduction in the number of policy meetings this year, but no adjustments will be made this year. 13. Middle East Situation— ① Iran: No direct dialogue with the US. ② Governor of the Central Bank of Iran: No frozen funds have been unfrozen yet. ③ Sources: If the US escalates the war, Iran is considering striking military targets in Europe. ④ Iranian lawmakers: A joint statement with Oman is about to be issued, announcing a new passage through the Strait of Hormuz. ⑤ Iran stated that if its interests are harmed, it will retaliate by raising tariffs in the Strait of Hormuz. ⑥ Trump hinted that major sanctions against Iran may be introduced this week. ⑦ US media: The US secretly opened a passage through the Strait of Hormuz, transporting approximately 10 million barrels of oil daily. ⑧ Trump: Negotiations may resume "at some point," but Iran must completely abandon its nuclear weapons.

Huatai Securities says July’s summer travel season and a decline in jet-fuel ex-factory prices prompted airlines to add capacity. Combined for Air China, China Eastern, China Southern, Spring Airlines and Juneyao, ASK and RPK rose YoY 4.6% and 7.8% (June: ASK -2.5%, RPK -1.7%); load factor climbed 2.6ppt to 86.2%. Volume growth has been accompanied by weak pricing: domestic fares including fuel surcharge in weeks 27–31 (Jun 29–Aug 2) fell 3.2% YoY (vs Jun 1–28 +11.5%). Early August (weeks 32–33, Aug 3–16) fares improved 2.6% YoY, but Huatai says the low base means the summer peak has not produced a clear seasonality-driven boost and sector attention remains limited. The firm will monitor international oil and high-frequency data; it remains constructive on a mid- to long-term industry recovery and says left-side positioning offers relatively high cost-effectiveness.