CITIC Securities research says the global semiconductor equipment upcycle
remains intact and flags Chinese suppliers’ overseas expansion. SEMI updated its
outlook, forecasting sustained growth through 2026–28: global semiconductor
manufacturing equipment sales are forecast at $165.9bn in 2026 (+23.2% YoY) and
could reach a record $229.5bn by 2028, marking five consecutive years of growth.
The industry is experiencing a rare, full-chain price upswing across equipment
components, with pricing power structurally shifting from chips to equipment and
parts. Component vendors, typically smaller with high fixed costs, should see
price rises flow rapidly to margins, while capacity expansion lead times of
12–18 months leave supply relatively inelastic.
