Al Jazeera reported that while US President Trump threatened on Wednesday to launch what he called an "economic D-Day," the US market appeared to bear the brunt of the impact on Thursday. US stocks suffered their biggest drop in three weeks as US crude oil prices rose slightly from Wednesday's close of $86.20 to $86.70 per barrel. Meanwhile, the US announced this week that its total debt had surpassed $40 trillion, a record high.
Schneider, a non-resident researcher at the Qatari think tank, the Middle East Global Affairs Council, pointed out that the 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.25% after Trump announced the measures, approaching a 20-year high, indicating that investors were legitimately avoiding US Treasuries and market confidence was weakening. Although US Treasury Secretary Bessenter urgently doubled the long-term debt repurchase program to at least $4 billion, it failed to calm the market. "The fact that the strongest Treasury Department's extraordinary measures failed to work is a strong signal in itself," Schneider said. He added that since June, long-term Treasury bonds have faced a "buyer strike," driven by the triple pressures of a widening federal deficit, a surge in AI company bond issuances, and oil price inflation premiums.
The economic pressures facing the United States itself cannot be ignored. Schneider points out that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices, and Gulf production is unlikely to recover until early 2027. Supply shortages are exacerbating US inflation and transmitting to the bond market; the real damage is now manifesting there. He states that while the US is energy-self-sufficient, it is not immune—gasoline prices and the cost of living are core issues in a midterm election year, and the Federal Reserve cannot cut interest rates without fueling oil-driven inflation.
This week, US debt historically surpassed $40 trillion, two years ahead of schedule, primarily due to the costs of war and Trump's tax cuts. Schneider also cautions that the US needs to consider the economic situation of its allies. Gulf states and East Asian economies were hardest hit by the war and are also major holders of US debt. On Wednesday, Trump warned any country aiding Iran would face "huge economic consequences"; meanwhile, the UAE announced an indefinite embargo, a move analysts say is significant because Iran relies on UAE financial channels. As Gulf states deplete their reserves and the Japanese yen comes under pressure, marginal buyers of US debt are withdrawing—just when Washington needs funds most.
