A record-strong El Niño has driven a severe drought in the Panama Canal basin,
operational forcing cuts that pose growing supply-chain and US inflation risks.
Basin rainfall is about 34% below historical averages; since May Panama City has
received roughly 75% of normal rainfall and the western city of David just 60%
over the past 90 days. Dozens of ships queued at both ends in early August, with
some delayed more than a week and one container vessel reportedly paying a
record $4m to jump the line. The Panama Canal Authority will lower maximum
vessel draft from the usual 50 ft to 48 ft from September and expects further
draft reductions; daily transits will be progressively cut toward 32 ships.
Carriers including Mediterranean Shipping Co. have announced increased canal
surcharges effective September 12. The disruption is already raising freight
costs for canal-dependent goods and risks cascading to land transport: ships may
reroute to US West Coast ports, boosting rail and truck demand and pushing
inland freight and consumer goods prices higher. The canal constraint could also
complicate global energy flows: oil-price pressure from Iranian risks at the
Strait of Hormuz may be amplified if US energy exports that use the Panama Canal
are limited, reducing Asia’s ability to substitute US supply. Washington
extended a waiver on August 10 allowing foreign vessels to move energy between
US ports to ease Iran-related oil-price pressure. Cato Institute data show at
at least 49 foreign vessels had transited under the waiver as of August 11 and 215
vessels have completed canal transits in the period cited. Analysts say a return
to 2023–24 drought-level transits would hit the US economy more through higher
prices for phones, computers and agricultural goods than via direct energy-price
shocks.
