Ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz rose almost 400% over two weeks, with
about 200 vessels last week versus 150 the week before and 40 two weeks earlier,
restoring passage to roughly 20% of pre-war levels. Kpler says over the past two
weeks more than 80% of liquid cargoes either used the US-backed, IMO-approved
Oman route (rejected by Iran) or went dark, likely via the same corridor. Kpler
oil-analysis head Homayoun Falakshahi said Iran appears to have at least
partially lost control of the strait; Dan Pickering of Pickering Energy called
the Oman route the logical option because it lets ships avoid paying Tehran
transit fees. In the past seven days 103 vessels entered and 89 exited the
strait, up from 76/75 the prior week and versus 18/21 two weeks earlier. Most
transiting ships fly Panama or Liberia flags; roughly half are tankers and the
remainder dry bulk. Five vessels were hit by Iranian shelling last week, causing
two injuries; all were damaged but none sank. Since May the US has been covertly
escorting tankers through the strait using a shadow fleet tactic—radar off,
close to the Omani coast—to reduce detection.
