Li Auto-W (02015.HK) reports Q2 results on Wednesday. A Visible Alpha survey of
analysts expects a RMB1.52 bln net loss (≈$226.1 mln) versus a RMB1.09 bln
profit a year earlier, with revenue seen at RMB25.17 bln, down 17% YoY. After
gross margin fell to 7.9% in Q1, investors will watch whether Q2 margin rises
above 10% as a signal of an earnings inflection. Jefferies says ongoing
refreshes of core L-series models should support volume recovery and margin
improvement; deliveries fell 11.5% YoY in Q2, and the market will monitor
whether Li Auto can restore YoY delivery growth in Q3. Jefferies expects the
updated L6 to drive the recovery, projecting L6 monthly sales to rise from a H1
average of ~5,000 to about 10,000 in September; launches of new L9 and L8
complete the L-series refresh. On pure-electric plans, i8 has underperformed
while lower-priced i6 has become the primary volume model; management comments
on i6 order momentum, profitability and timing/rollout of the upcoming i9 will
be key to judging whether EVs can become a second growth engine.
