Deutsche Bank points out that Nvidia's earnings reports have become macroeconomic events approaching the levels of non-farm payrolls and CPI in recent years, but the market's sensitivity to "continued stronger-than-expected demand" is declining. In recent quarters, Nvidia's positive earnings surprises have been smaller than in 2023-2024, and its stock price fell the day after each of the last four earnings releases.
Meanwhile, the report cites Bloomberg reports that some of Nvidia's major customers have been informed that servers equipped with its AI chips will face price increases. Deutsche Bank sees this change as another sign that AI may have an inflationary effect: AI investment can improve productivity and supply capacity, and the rapidly expanding demand for computing power may also create new cost pressures through the prices of capital goods such as servers.
Therefore, the focus of Nvidia's earnings reports in the next phase will further expand from "whether the order book is strong enough" to price, cost, and profit distribution across the supply chain. Continued growth in AI capital expenditure still validates demand, but if server prices continue to rise, the market will begin to reassess the impact of this round of AI construction on corporate costs and inflation.
