First, Ukraine still has alternative export routes. Besides Black Sea ports, Ukraine can export grain via rail, Danube River ports, and the Romanian port of Constanta. However, the capacity of these routes is far lower than that of sea transport. Previous reports indicated that the rail and Danube River routes currently each handle approximately 45% of exports. If the Black Sea ports remain closed, alternative routes can only maintain about half of the export capacity. Therefore, "not a complete blockade" ≠ "grain exports have not been severely affected."
Second, and more importantly, Zelenskyy is testing the waters for a "partial ceasefire." Currently, Ukraine's proposal is essentially: discuss grain shipping first, then other issues. Ukraine hopes that Russia will cease attacks on Ukrainian grain ports, ships, and export routes—and that Ukraine will also cease attacks on Russian grain logistics—to restore civilian grain shipping on the Black Sea. Zelenskyy even suggested considering allowing third-country vessels to transport Ukrainian agricultural products, with corresponding security guarantees. However, Russia currently prefers to link this to Ukraine ceasing attacks on Russian energy facilities. This is the current point of contention between the two sides.
