Nine policy committee members were split at the August meeting; several said
upside inflation risks could make further rate rises necessary. Other members
judged the current cash rate of 4.35% is working and preferred to give more time
to assess the economy. Minutes said upcoming data must show inflation is likely
to return to the 2–3% target band within a reasonable timeframe. The committee
flagged the Middle East conflict, a global AI and data‑centre investment boom,
and weak productivity as key risks, while some members described those risks as
uncertain and recent economic flow as allowing policy to remain on hold. Market
pricing implies a 13% chance the RBA lifts the cash rate to 4.6% at the Sep
28–29 meeting and roughly a 67% probability of another hike before February.
