Goldman Sachs analysts have revised their Bank of Japan policy-rate outlook, now
expecting the BOJ to deliver a rate hike in September versus their prior
forecast for January 2027. They see a further move in January 2027 conditional
on strong wage momentum from the 2027 spring wage negotiations (Shunto), and
another increase in July 2027 that would lift the policy rate to 1.75%. Goldman
says the BOJ is increasingly wary of upside inflation risk above 2%, which
raises the odds of earlier tightening, though the bank still judges policy is
not behind given underlying inflation remains below 2%.
