South Korea's DRAM export unit price for Aug. 1-20 reached $92,183/kg, up 401%
YoY and about 12.5x the Jan. 2023 low. AI-driven HBM production is diverting
wafer capacity from commodity DRAM, tightening supply. Goldman Sachs forecasts
the DRAM supply shortfall widening from 5.0% this year to 5.9% next year, citing
HBM for AI servers and large-capacity server DRAM absorbing limited production
capacity. TrendForce expects Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron to allocate about 30%
of DRAM wafer starts to HBM by the end of next year, while HBM will represent
only roughly 13% of DRAM bit supply. Memory makers warn DRAM and NAND tightness
driven by AI demand may persist beyond 2027; SK Hynix said 2027 could be the
memory industry's worst shortage year and Goldman sees potential shortages
lasting into 2028.
