The Bank of Korea will announce policy on Thursday; analysts are almost evenly
divided on whether it will hike. A Wall Street Journal survey of 31 analysts
found 16 expect a July move — the first consecutive rate increases in three
years — while 15 expect officials to hold until a potential Q4 increase. Markets
largely expect the central bank to lift its growth forecast for the year even as
inflation remains above the 2% target. Morgan Stanley economist Kathleen Oh says
a favorable macro backdrop could support an August hike; HSBC economist Jin Choi
cites weakening consumption and sees no rush to tighten. Barclays economist Bum
Ki Son says the MPC is split between holding rates and a precautionary hike.
