According to a recent Yonhap News Agency survey of six economic analysts, respondents expect the Bank of Korea to raise its 2026 economic growth forecast from the current 2.6% to a maximum of 3.4% on Thursday. Ahn Jae-kyun, an analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, stated that he expects this year's economic growth to be 3.2%. Against the backdrop of stronger-than-expected exports led by semiconductors, increased government spending driven by tax increases, and a recovery in domestic demand, South Korea is expected to achieve economic growth of approximately 3% this year.
Other analysts gave similar forecasts of around 3.1% to 3.2%, with Nomura Securities economist Park Jung-woo having the highest expectation at 3.4%. He believes the Bank of Korea may consider the semiconductor boom and the government's expansionary fiscal policy, significantly raising its growth forecasts for this year and next. While demand for artificial intelligence inference is growing exponentially, semiconductor supply is relatively slow. The supply shortage may persist for a longer period, even beyond 2027.
Joo Won, deputy director of the Economic Research Department at the Hyundai Research Institute, holds a more cautious view, believing that the semiconductor supercycle may have peaked earlier than expected, while also noting a month-on-month decline in chip exports in August. The semiconductor market will remain strong until the end of this year or around the first half of next year.
