Yonhap’s survey of six economists found respondents expect the Bank of Korea on
Thursday to raise its 2026 GDP forecast from 2.6% to as high as 3.4%. Analysts’
forecasts cluster around 3.1–3.4%; Korea Investment & Securities’ analyst set
his growth call at 3.2%, while Nomura’s economist offered the 3.4% high-end and
said the central bank could materially revise up growth for this year and next.
Drivers cited: a semiconductor-led export upside, higher tax receipts supporting
larger government spending, and a pickup in domestic demand. Market participants
note AI-driven demand is lifting chip consumption but supply is responding
slowly; some see supply tightness persisting into or beyond 2027. A deputy
director at Hyundai Research Institute flagged a risk that the supercycle could
peak earlier, citing a month-on-month decline in August chip exports, but
expects semiconductor strength to hold into year-end and into 1H next year.
