Interest Rate Hikes
1. Societe Generale: The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. The bank's governor signaled in July that a second rate hike in August is possible.
2. Morgan Stanley: The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. A favorable macroeconomic backdrop is sufficient to support a further rate hike in August.
3. iM Securities: The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Waiting until October to act offers little benefit, as the cost of delaying a rate hike is rising.
4. DBS Bank: The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, followed by another 25 basis point hike in the fourth quarter to 3.25%, maintaining that rate level until the end of next year.
5. Nomura Securities: The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points. Concerns about inflation and financial stability risks, coupled with recent strong economic growth, all point to further rate hikes.
6. Mitsubishi UFJ: The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, citing core inflation, semiconductor exports and memory prices, and a robust real estate market as grounds for further rate hikes.
7. Reuters poll: The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, with 18 of 35 economists supporting this forecast, while the remainder expect rates to remain unchanged at 2.75%.
8. Citibank: The Bank of Korea is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, followed by further increases in November and February next year to 3.5%; the tightening力度 may be stronger than expected, with rates potentially reaching as high as 3.75%.
Stay On Hold
1. HSBC: The Bank of Korea is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, as it is in no hurry to raise rates given the apparent weakening of consumption.
2. Eugene Investment & Securities: The Bank of Korea is expected to keep interest rates unchanged; maintaining the stance of "possible future rate hikes" will itself have a tightening effect.
3. A survey by the Korea Financial Investment Association indicates that the Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its current interest rate. 79% of bond market experts support this prediction, while 20% expect a rate hike.
4. Barclays Bank: The Bank of Korea is expected to maintain its current interest rate. Although the central bank's own communications have pointed to a rate hike, given the significantly tightened financial conditions, it is likely to keep rates unchanged.
