US Dollar
1. Canada retaliates against the Trump administration by imposing a 50% tariff on multiple categories of US goods.
2. ADP Weekly Employment Report: In the four weeks ending August 8, 2026, private sector employers added an average of 11,750 jobs per week.
3. Federal Reserve – Collins: In the absence of sustained evidence of declining inflation, it is appropriate to raise interest rates “as soon as possible.” Given the limited additional tariffs and progress on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a decline in inflation is the most likely outcome; Barkin: If debt continues to increase, investors will eventually stop buying US Treasuries at some point; Discount Rate Meeting Minutes: Four of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks voted to raise the discount rate in July.
Japanese Yen
1. Japanese corporate services inflation accelerated in July.
2. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for a Bank of Japan interest rate hike, predicting a rate increase in September.
3. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will miss the Jackson Hole meeting; hawkish members will attend in his place.
4. Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Minoru Shirou: CPI is expected to gradually rise due to the situation in the Middle East.
5. Due to rising interest rates, Japan's Ministry of Finance expects debt servicing costs to reach record levels in the next fiscal year.
6. Australia's second-largest pension fund has significantly overweighted the yen, betting that the market's expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike are insufficient.
7. Reuters poll: 57% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise its benchmark interest rate to 1.25% in September (compared to only 5% in the previous survey). More than half of the economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates to at least 1.50% in the first quarter of 2027 (compared to 1.25% in the previous survey). 69% of economists believe that the joint foreign exchange intervention by Japan and the United States in July was "ineffective" or "completely ineffective."
Other:
1. Australia's July inflation rate was higher than expected, increasing the risk of a rate hike.
2. Citi: The Reserve Bank of Australia's inflation forecast may be inaccurate, increasing the risk of a September rate hike.
3. The United States is considering escalating trade sanctions after Canada took retaliatory measures. 4. With the Bank of Korea's interest rate decision imminent, analysts are clearly divided on whether to raise rates.
5. Swedish central bank meeting minutes: It was stated that if inflation continues to exceed expectations, a rate hike is still possible this year.
6. Sources: The European Central Bank plans to raise interest rates in September, but has no intention of signaling continued rate hikes.
7. ECB's Schnabel: The ECB needs to raise interest rates further to curb inflation risks.
8. Indonesian central bank governor candidate Destri: We will monitor foreign exchange trading data more closely.
