Iran's rally reflects post-conflict asset revaluation, very high inflation
expectations and liquidity returning to equities rather than a pickup in real
fundamentals. The Tehran Stock Exchange reopened in late May after an ~80‑day
suspension following US‑Israeli strikes; TEDPIX, which was around 3.7m points
before the halt, has climbed past 6.38m. Inflation remains extreme — Tindex
shows July inflation near 87.9% — prompting a shift out of cash into stocks,
gold, property and FX, which can drive strong nominal equity gains without
corresponding rises in real purchasing power or corporate profits. Many listed
firms (petrochemicals, steel, copper, mining, energy and exporters) have
revenues or assets linked to dollars or commodity prices, so real depreciation
and inflation can boost nominal revenues and prompt asset revaluation. Market
breadth is wide: over 90% of stocks are up and more than 80% have risen 2–3%,
pointing to a liquidity‑driven, market‑wide buying wave rather than a narrow,
sector‑specific rally.
