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KPLER chief analyst Sumit Ritolia said Middle East refining capacity is around 7.3 mln bpd versus 9.9 mln bpd in February 2026, driven by damaged refineries and constrained shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. KPLER expects gradual improvement fro

2026-08-26

KPLER chief analyst Sumit Ritolia said Middle East refining capacity is around 7.3 mln bpd versus 9.9 mln bpd in February 2026, driven by damaged refineries and constrained shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. KPLER expects gradual improvement from Q4 2026 but sees pre-war capacity unlikely to return before Q2 2027. Short-term recovery is logistics-driven; full normalization requires repair of damaged capacity. The base case assumes transport disruptions persist through 2026, easing only late in Q4, after which remaining damaged capacity will be the main constraint until about Q2 2027.

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