1. Trump is paying a political price. The war has lasted far longer than Trump previously predicted "four weeks," while rising oil and gasoline prices have undermined his campaign promise to "reduce the cost of living in America." A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Trump's approval rating has dropped from 40% to 33%, with only 31% of Americans supporting the war. This is particularly detrimental to the Republican Party, which needs to maintain its slim majority in both houses of Congress with the midterm elections approaching.
2. The global economy has been impacted, but the worst has not yet occurred. The Strait of Hormuz supplies about one-fifth of the world's energy, and oil prices and transportation costs have risen rapidly since the outbreak of the war. However, the global economy has been more resilient than expected: the IMF's global economic growth forecast has been lowered from 3.3% in January to 3.0%, but a global economic shock similar to the 1970s oil crisis has not been repeated. Reasons include: a decline in the global economy's energy intensity
and continued strong investment in AI and other capital expenditures. 3. Iran "Severely Wounded but Not Defeated"
The US has significantly weakened Iran's military capabilities: the US claims to have destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels, rendered approximately 82% of Iran's air defense system ineffective, and essentially halted normal operations by the Iranian air force. However, the problem lies in the fact that the US has not eliminated Iran's ability to continue launching missile and drone attacks and disrupting shipping. The US's overwhelming military superiority does not equate to forcing Iran to surrender. Furthermore, the war has further exacerbated Iran's economic situation. In July, Iran's food inflation reached a staggering 128% year-on-year increase.
4. The Middle East Has Become More Destabilized
The US and Israel originally hoped to: weaken Iran → reduce the Middle East threat → improve the security of allies. However, analysts believe the actual outcome may be the opposite: while severely weakened, Iran has become more willing to use missiles, drones, and shipping disruptions. Simultaneously, Iran's attacks on Gulf states have increased economic uncertainty for those countries.
5. Iran's Nuclear Weapon Development May Be Delayed, But the Problems Have Not Disappeared
The US and Israeli strikes destroyed several known Iranian nuclear facilities and killed some nuclear scientists. US intelligence assessments suggest that the "breakthrough time" for Iran's nuclear weapons program has been extended from a maximum of approximately six months to a maximum of approximately one year. However, a significant uncertainty exists: the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is currently unable to confirm the actual location of approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium in Iran. This means that the destruction of known nuclear facilities does not equate to the complete elimination of Iran's nuclear program. If this 60% enriched uranium is moved to a secret location, it could theoretically be further enriched to weapons-grade uranium. Therefore, the US may achieve a delay in Iran's nuclear program, rather than a permanent solution to the Iranian nuclear issue.
6. US Military Capabilities Are Also Being Depleted. The US has already lost 42 military aircraft, and some of its precision-guided missile stockpiles are almost depleted. As of July, approximately 65% of its Patriot interceptor missiles had been depleted, and its THAAD interceptor missile stockpile had decreased by at least 38%. Simultaneously, the US has redeployed fighter jets, warships, and aircraft carriers from Europe and the Asia-Pacific region to the Middle East. This implies a very real problem: the US's concentration of resources on dealing with Iran means a relative reduction in military resources in other strategic directions.
