Padhraic Garvey, head of Americas research, and Michiel Tukker, senior rates
strategist at ING, say the US 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to fall below
4.5% in the near term. They add the US Treasury’s repo plan won the first round
in lowering long-term yields but warned more battles lie ahead; if the repo
program aims to structurally push long-term yields lower, a tougher fight
remains. ING expects the 10-year to trade in a 4.5%-5% range, with upside
pressure toward 4.75%-5% still present.
