If this stance persists, in the short term it may mean: ① A temporary decrease in the risk of a further large-scale escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict; ② A slight easing of the geopolitical risk premium in the European energy market; ③ However, since fighting continues, this cannot be interpreted as a ceasefire or a breakthrough in peace negotiations; ④ If Russia continues to make localized progress, it may actually increase Moscow's bargaining power in negotiations. Of particular note is the significant difference between the Russian military's statement that it has "made progress" and the West's assessment of the speed of the battlefield advance. Therefore, what truly matters going forward is not how the Kremlin describes the battlefield, but whether the Russian military can achieve sustained, operationally significant breakthroughs in key areas such as Donetsk.
