Commodity analysis firm Argus believes that France, the EU's largest grain producer, will see its wheat exports plummet to 6.9 million tons this season, the lowest level since 1976, due to a poor corn harvest and the need for more wheat to feed domestic livestock.
Argus predicts that French soft wheat exports in 2026/27 will not exceed 6 million tons, far below the 7 million tons forecast by the French Ministry of Agriculture's market research institute in July, and also lower than the 7.4 million tons in 2025/26.
Argus also stated that EU corn production is expected to decline by 19% compared to last year, to 46.9 million tons, the lowest level since the 1990s. The reduced corn production will also lead to lower EU wheat exports, as Ukraine, a major corn supplier, remains affected by regional conflict.
Argus forecasts total EU wheat production at 131.5 million tons, nearly 9% lower than in 2025/26. The company maintained its July forecast for French soft wheat production at 30.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.6%.
