Rising exports from Middle Eastern producers and a gradual recovery of crude
transits through the Strait of Hormuz are capping global oil price upside.
Traders monitoring shipments estimate roughly 6–8 mln bpd currently passing the
chokepoint; flows fell in July after Iran carried out a series of attacks on
VLCCs and a temporary truce collapsed. Throughput remains about half the level
before those attacks, though estimates are volatile—Vortexa estimates about 10
mln bpd on average and U.S. officials have cited higher figures. The UK navy
said two merchant vessels were attacked on Monday, highlighting ongoing transit
risk. Record-high VLCC freight rates are helping sustain the recovery by
increasing incentives for owners to run the route.
