Goldman Sachs strategist Rich Privorotsky believes that oil prices may be more important than the Jackson Hole symposium. In other words, Goldman Sachs believes the market may be overemphasizing Warsh's speech while underestimating the impact of oil prices on inflation and financial markets. Goldman Sachs argues that if oil prices fall: Oil prices ↓ → Inflation expectations ↓ → Consumer pressure ↓ → Long-term US Treasury yields ↓ → Equity valuation pressure ↓ → Risk assets benefit. Therefore, oil prices may be more important than Warsh's speech itself. Privorotsky believes that unless Warsh significantly deviates from his previous policy stance, Jackson Hole itself may not pose a "major event risk."
