Spain's preliminary August CPI rose 4.5% YoY, more than double the ECB's 2%
target and the highest since 2023, though slightly below the median market
forecast. France's harmonised CPI accelerated to 2.7% YoY. Both moves were
driven by energy prices linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Eurozone
aggregate CPI is due next week; analysts expect a print above 3%. Markets have
fully priced a 25bp ECB hike in September, after June's initial move, and expect
another rate increase by spring 2027.
