Interest Rate Hikes
1. Societe Generale: Expects the Fed to raise rates in September and December.
2. Deutsche Bank: Continues to expect the Fed to raise rates by 50 basis points this year, once each at its September and December meetings.
3. Barclays: Given Warsh's hawkish comments, expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points each in September and December, previously expecting rates to remain unchanged for the remainder of the year.
Others
1. StoneX: Warsh rekindled the possibility of a September rate hike, but the key will be the upcoming August non-farm payroll and CPI data.
2. Nomura Securities: The market will be highly focused on recent inflation data, as Warsh made hawkish comments emphasizing the importance of the inflation target.
3. TS Lombard: August CPI, PPI, and employment data will be crucial in determining whether Warsh can persuade the Fed to wait until December to raise rates.
4. ABN AMRO: Warsh's latest comments are insufficient to convince Fed officials of any substantial action; the Fed's response mechanism remains unclear.
5. UOB: Warsh's remarks and his refusal to pre-commit to future policy reinforce the risk of a rate hike this year, but there's also the possibility of him just talking the talk without walking the walk.
6. DWS Group: There is a risk that the market is continuing to over-pricing in a rate hike. If subsequent macroeconomic data is weak, the Fed may ultimately not act as expected.
7. Natixis: Fed Chairman Warsh's hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole symposium was just right; whether the Fed raises rates in September will depend on the August CPI data.
8. TD Securities: If we see stable or further strengthening labor market indicators in August, followed by stronger inflation data, it will indicate that Warsh may also be prepared to take action.
9. Nordea Bank: Warsh's attitude suggests that a September rate hike is a real option. The August CPI is far more important than non-farm payrolls. If the inflation trend does not show significant improvement before the meeting, the Fed will take action in the fall.
10. Goldman Sachs: If the September decision is controversial and the Fed holds rates steady again without a clear explanation, US Treasuries face a significant risk of repeating the sharp fluctuations seen after the July meeting.
11. Mitsubishi UFJ: If Warsh continues his "hawkish stance without raising rates," it will just be repeating old rhetoric; unless he pushes the Fed into a rate hike cycle rather than just a single rate hike, the market reaction will be quite muted.
