The S&P 500 recovered from its summer sell-off about a month ago and has resumed its record-breaking run. The Nasdaq 100, however, is still "calculating" its losses from that summer rally. While the gap it hasn't closed yet isn't large, the market information it reveals is significant. As of last week's close, this benchmark tech index was still 4% below its record high reached on June 2nd, making it the last major U.S. stock index to not yet reach its record high. The Nasdaq 100's lagging performance is largely due to a 10-month-long market divergence. This divergence has reshaped the market leaders and laggards, changing who ultimately determines market strength.
① On October 29th last year, the Nasdaq 100 reached a peak and then entered a correction, beginning its decline.
② By mid-December, the S&P 500 had resumed its record-breaking run, while the Nasdaq 100 missed its record high at the end of January this year.
③ The subsequent spring sell-off masked the divergence between the two indices; both fell and bottomed out simultaneously, recovering within a day of each other.
④ The June plunge in chip stocks became the watershed moment when the two indices began to diverge significantly. At that time, the S&P 500 was relatively stable, while the Nasdaq 100 was clearly under pressure.
⑤ Discussions and analyses of the divergence may have begun then, but this state has actually lasted for 10 months.
