Shigeto Nagai, former Bank of Japan official and economist at Oxford Economics,
now expects BOJ hikes in September and December this year and another in April
2027, lifting the policy rate to 1.75%. That path is faster and higher than his
prior forecast of hikes in December this year and June 2027. He says the BOJ
seeks to address yen depreciation and rising inflation expectations. Nagai adds
he views the policy rate as unlikely to reach the market‑implied terminal
slightly above 2%, and expects the 10‑year JGB yield to top out around 3%.
