On September 16th, the FOMC has 12 voting members, and at least 7 votes are needed to change policy. The vote on July 29th was 9 to maintain the interest rate and 3 to raise it, with dissenters Hamak, Kashkari, and Logan. After Warsh turned hawkish at Jackson Hole, if Cook, who conditionally supported a rate hike, is also included, external "vote counting models" arrive at 5 for a rate hike, 5 for maintaining the rate, and 2 undetermined. However, this is only a presumption of stance, not a confirmation that the five members have committed to a rate hike.
Woller and Powell are currently undecided. Waller will publicly discuss the economy and policy on September 3rd and could become the next key swing vote.
Those leaning towards maintaining the interest rate include Williams, Barr, Jefferson, Bowman, and Paulson. The CME's current probability of a rate hike has risen to approximately 60%, but futures probabilities cannot mechanically correspond to a 5-5-2 vote; they also include expectations regarding employment, inflation data, and internal coordination within the meeting.
