Brett McGurk, a CNN analyst who has served in senior national security positions under US presidents Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden, wrote that Iran's leverage in the Strait of Hormuz is at risk of failing.
The article states that the six-month conflict has roughly gone through four acts. The first act began with the massive airstrikes on February 28; the second with the ceasefire and negotiations on April 7; and the third with a new round of military clashes in the weeks following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran on June 17. It was at that time that calls for the US to effectively relinquish control of the Strait and hand it over to Iran grew louder, and the US seemed to have no other options. However, things are not so simple.
Since mid-July, the US has reimposed a military blockade on Iranian ports and reinstated sanctions on Iranian oil trade. At the same time, the US military has been working to clear shipping lanes and assist in protecting merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, Iranian oil exports have been effectively blocked, while global oil shipments are recovering and energy prices have remained unusually stable. According to a Bloomberg report this week, oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has now recovered to two-thirds of pre-war levels. This means that the pressure is now increasingly shifting towards Iran, rather than the United States. If Iran loses control of the Strait of Hormuz, its leverage will quickly dissipate.
The article states that Iran may attempt to escape its current predicament through conflict, as it has done before. This could involve increasing global economic pressure by driving up global energy prices and US gasoline prices, ultimately forcing Trump to concede, especially with the US midterm elections approaching. However, strategically, these tactics have not worked. The Gulf states do not want the war to continue, but most do not support Iran's claims to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's attempts to blockade the strait using drones and mines are now, for the first time, failing.
The article concludes that both Iran and Trump believe they have reached each other's breaking point, but it is too early to draw conclusions. Therefore, this form of confrontation could continue until the end of Trump's term, or even beyond. As the war enters its fourth act, the US's current objectives have become clearer: maintaining the blockade against Iran, ensuring commercial shipping, and demanding that Iran abandon its claims to the strait and its nuclear enrichment program. The current situation is beginning to favor Washington.
