JPMorgan Chase's CapexNow model has revised its estimate for US capital expenditure growth in the third quarter of 2026 upward by 0.8 percentage points to an annualized rate of 9.2%. On August 10th, the model estimated only 8.4%, which was already one of the strongest quarterly growth rates in the past decade; the data has now been revised upwards further.
An even more significant change comes from the scope of investment. JPMorgan Chase points out that multiple indicators show the capital expenditure boom is spreading from the technology sector to non-technology sectors, and there has been no significant cooling down since the investment boom in the first half of the year. If corporate investment continues to expand into a wider range of industries, the reliance of US growth and profits on a few AI technology giants will decrease, and the fundamental support for market "breadth expansion" will be strengthened.
