S&P GSCI agriculture spot index rose for 11 consecutive sessions through Aug 28,
gaining 13.4% cumulatively; it fell 0.74% on Aug 31, ending the streak. The move
was supply-driven: attacks on Black Sea shipping have pushed Russia to reroute
grain via the Baltic, but alternative corridors are estimated to cover at most
about half the shortfall. FAO data show July global cereal prices up 3.4% MoM
and wheat up 5.8% MoM; the FAO food price index rose just 0.6% as meat and dairy
prices eased. This appears to be an advance signal for food inflation rather
than confirmation of a broad inflation restart. Key market variables are the
duration of Black Sea disruption and whether gains in wheat spread to oils, meat
and retail prices.
