Westpac expects the RBNZ to raise rates 25bp to 2.75% on Sept 2, in line with
market consensus. The bank says RBNZ policy projections will likely imply a
year‑end rate near 3% and a peak around 3.3%. Westpac expects any signal on an
October move to be framed as data‑dependent and judges that, unless the RBNZ
departs from that wording, the meeting is unlikely to trigger large market
moves. It assigns roughly a 10–15% probability to a hawkish surprise (eg, upward
revision to neutral-rate assumptions or clearer signals of consecutive hikes in
Oct and Dec) and a similar 10–15% probability to a dovish surprise implying a
pause before December, leaving risks broadly symmetric around the baseline.
