1. KPMG: Given the current weakness in the Canadian economy and the fact that trade tensions are unlikely to immediately trigger inflationary pressures, the central bank has every reason to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
2. Standard Chartered: Expects the Bank of Canada to maintain its interest rate at 2.25% and postpone rate cuts until December. While escalating tariffs pose a downside risk, the probability of trade easing is high.
3. TD Securities: Expects Section 338 tariffs to reduce Canadian GDP by approximately 0.3% by 2027, with limited impact on inflation, supporting a longer period of inactivity for the Bank of Canada.
4. Grinding Group: The threshold for raising or lowering interest rates in the short term has become extremely high, as tariffs both hurt growth and raise prices, creating a stagflationary pressure that puts the central bank in a dilemma.
5. Rabobank: Expects the Bank of Canada to maintain its interest rate at 2.25% and remain unchanged until 2027, with rates already at a terminal level.
6. Royal Bank of Canada: Tariffs threatening growth and oil prices pushing up inflation are causing the central bank considerable anxiety, but not enough to prompt it to break its current wait-and-see stance.
7. CIBC: Expects the Bank of Canada to continue its wait-and-see approach, as the bank has ample time to assess the impact of energy prices and US-Canada trade tensions.
8. Brown Brothers Harriman: The Bank of Canada is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting, as the market's current pricing of a 75 basis point rate hike over the next year is too aggressive.
9. Reuters poll: Expects the Bank of Canada to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% and remain on hold for at least the next year.
10. Wall Street Journal poll: All economists surveyed expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%.
