July CPI YoY 3.0% (June 2.8%), MoM +0.5%, SA MoM +0.3%. Core CPI ex-gas stable
at 2.2% YoY (third month). Gasoline +25.7% YoY. Median CPI YoY 2.0% (June 1.9%);
trimmed mean 1.9% (unchanged). Industrial product prices July MoM +0.6%, YoY
+12.4%; ex-energy & petroleum MoM -0.2%; energy & petroleum MoM +6.4%. Raw
materials prices July MoM -2.2%, YoY +18.1%; ex-crude energy MoM -1.5% YoY
+16.7%; crude energy products MoM -3.6%. Q2 GDP QoQ +0.8%; Q1 revised to +0.1%
from 0.0%. Q2 growth driven by exports, household consumption and business
investment. Labor: July employment +75k (+0.4% MoM) to 21.215 mln; unemployment
6.4% (-0.1ppt). Average hourly wages YoY +2.8% (June 3.3%). Retail: advance
indicator points to July retail sales MoM -0.8%. June retail sales MoM +0.6% to
C$74.3 bln; Q2 nominal retail sales QoQ +2.2%, real volumes +0.4%. Trade: June
goods exports +0.4% MoM to C$77.5 bln; imports +0.2% to C$73.6 bln; trade
surplus C$3.9 bln (May C$3.7 bln), fourth consecutive surplus. BOC Q2 surveys:
business confidence slipped after three quarters of improvement; firms expecting
a recession in the next 12 months rose to 17% from 9%; firms raised input-price,
selling-price and inflation expectations. Consumer survey shows a slight rise in
the share expecting 12-month inflation >3%; 2- and 5-year inflation expectations
edged up.
