1. Inflation and Prices
① Inflation: The CPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in July (2.8% in June), 0.5% month-on-month, and 0.3% month-on-month after seasonal adjustment. Excluding gasoline, the CPI remained stable at 2.2% year-on-year for the third consecutive month. Gasoline prices rose 25.7% year-on-year. The median CPI rose 2.0% year-on-year in July (1.9% in June), and the cut-off CPI rose 1.9% year-on-year (unchanged from June).
② Industrial Product Price Index: The industrial product price index rose 0.6% month-on-month and 12.4% year-on-year in July; excluding energy and petroleum products, it fell 0.2% month-on-month. Energy and petroleum product prices rose 6.4% month-on-month.
③ Raw Material Price Index: The raw material price index fell 2.2% month-on-month and rose 18.1% year-on-year in July; excluding crude oil and energy products, it fell 1.5% month-on-month and rose 16.7% year-on-year. Crude oil and energy product prices fell 3.6% month-on-month.
2. Economic Growth
Q2 GDP grew 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, while Q1 growth was revised upward from 0.0% to 0.1%. Q2 growth was primarily driven by exports, household consumption, and business capital investment.
3. Employment
① Number of Employed: Employment increased by approximately 75,000 in July, a 0.4% increase month-on-month, bringing the total number of employed to 21.215 million.
② Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate fell to 6.4% in July, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from June.
③ Wages: Average hourly earnings rose 2.8% year-on-year in July, lower than June's 3.3%.
4. Retail Sales
Leading indicators suggest that retail sales may have declined 0.8% month-on-month in July. June retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month to C$74.3 billion. Nominal retail sales grew 2.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, while real sales volume increased by 0.4%.
4. Trade
Merchant exports rose 0.4% month-over-month to C$77.5 billion in June, while merchandise imports increased 0.2% month-over-month to C$73.6 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of C$3.9 billion, compared to C$3.7 billion in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of surplus.
5. Other Surveys
① Business Outlook: The Bank of Canada's second-quarter survey showed that business confidence deteriorated again after three consecutive quarters of improvement, with a slightly weaker sales outlook. The proportion of businesses expecting a recession in the next 12 months rose from 9% to 17%, and business expectations for input prices, sales prices, and inflation all increased.
② Consumer Expectations: The Bank of Canada's second-quarter survey showed a slight increase in the proportion of consumers who believe inflation will exceed 3% in the next 12 months, and two-year and five-year inflation expectations also rose slightly.
