The WMO said on Sept. 3 that El Nifio has formed and is expected to intensify to
very strong levels, altering global precipitation and temperature patterns and
sustaining elevated extreme-weather risk through Feb. 2027. Subsurface Pacific
waters are up to 8°C above average in places, providing substantial heat to fuel
further strengthening. The WMO forecasts a near‑100% probability that El Nifio
will persist until Feb. 2027.