Morgan Stanley believes Dell has become a core beneficiary of the AI infrastructure construction cycle, with the biggest constraint currently stemming from supply rather than demand. While there is still room for upward revisions to earnings, the key to whether its valuation can continue to rise lies in how long it can sustain its early server procurement and exceptionally high profit margins:
1. Second fiscal quarter AI orders totaled $60.9 billion, with a backlog of $95 billion. The company's 2027 AI server revenue guidance of $74 billion is clearly conservative, predicting approximately $96 billion in 2027 and approximately $150 billion in 2028. The 2028 forecast is about 75% higher than the market consensus.
2. Profit margins have improved significantly. ISG operating profit margin reached 15%, a year-on-year increase of 6.3 percentage points, primarily driven by economies of scale, price increases, improved product configurations, supply constraints, and higher-margin storage products.
3. Traditional servers and storage are also showing a clear recovery. Server and network revenue grew by 108% year-on-year, and storage grew by 26%, indicating that growth is not entirely dependent on AI servers.
4. Morgan Stanley's target price is $499, reflecting a significantly more optimistic earnings outlook than the market. However, given the substantial increase in the current share price, the sustainability of high profit margins remains questionable; therefore, the rating is maintained at "Neutral."
5. The biggest risk lies in the potential for pre-purchased server demand, which could diminish the ability to raise prices once supply recovers. Therefore, Morgan Stanley's model assumes a 4.7% year-over-year revenue decline in fiscal year 2029. (The above views are from Morgan Stanley's September 2nd report.)
