[An "Extraordinary" Earnings Season: Record US Corporate Profits Fuel Valuation Alarms] Second-quarter data from the US Department of Commerce shows that pre-tax corporate profits reached $4.8 trillion, accounting for 17.9% of national income, the highest level since records began in 1947. After-tax profits also hit a record high, rising to 14.6% of national income. As the share of profits in national income increases, the share of labor compensation in total income has been declining since the early 1990s. In the second quarter, employee compensation accounted for 60.2%, the lowest share of total economic income since 1951. This structural shift is likely driven by higher capital contributions to productivity growth, essentially reflecting an accelerated technology investment cycle. However, this could also lead to higher stock valuations relative to other assets. The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio (CAPE), established by Nobel laureate economist Robert Shiller, shows that the S&P 500's current CAPE is at its second-highest level in history, second only to the level reached before the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000. Dan Alpert, Founding Managing Partner of Westwood Capital, said: “CAPE has reached worrying levels. Why take on this risk in a market that is already extremely inflated in terms of valuation when investors can turn to fixed-income assets and get substantial returns? This situation will break down one day. The only question is when.”
