Goldman Sachs points out that as Venezuelan crude oil production gradually recovers, and more crude oil shifts from the Chinese market to the US Gulf Coast, the regional supply and demand structure of heavy crude oil may change first. Compared to total global supply, the more direct short-term impact may be reflected in the price spread between heavy and light crude oil.
This change is more favorable to US refineries. Goldman Sachs believes that large refining companies capable of processing heavy crude oil will have more feedstock options, especially Marathon Petroleum, Valero, and Phillips 66. At the same time, the resumption of Venezuelan heavy crude oil exports will also increase competitive pressure on Canadian heavy crude oil, and Goldman Sachs judges that this impact has already been partially reflected in the valuations of some Canadian oil companies.
