The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will adjust the methodology for calculating PCE prices for computer software and accessories, portfolio management, and legal services on September 30.
These three items have a combined weight of only about 3.4%, but recent price fluctuations have been unusual: software prices have risen by about 73% annualized in four months, and investment management prices are easily affected by stock market rises and changes in asset size, amplifying the core PCE reading.
Goldman Sachs estimates that the May core PCE year-on-year growth rate may be revised down from 3.4% to 3.2%; JPMorgan Chase expects it to be revised down to 3.3%.
This also explains why Waller believes that overall and core PCE may not best reflect inflation trends, and he pays more attention to the three-month annualized core inflation rate—this indicator has fallen from 4.76% in February to 3.05% in July.
This revised methodology significantly strengthens Waller's reasoning for pausing the rate hike in September. However, the statistical revision only remeasures historical prices and does not reduce the living costs already borne by residents, and the official results will be later than the September interest rate meeting.
Waller, a swing voter, currently leans towards not raising interest rates, but ultimately it still depends on whether the August CPI shows a significant rebound.
