RBNZ Assistant Governor Silk said the bank is more likely to wait until December
for its next rate increase. The RBNZ raised the OCR at a second consecutive
meeting this week; Governor Breman said further hikes may be required but
policymakers want time to assess the impact of earlier moves. “We have been
clear that, based on the economic outlook, further rate increases may be
necessary,” Silk said, adding the timing — October or December — is undecided
but the latter is more likely on the current rate path. Swaps price a 31% chance
of a 25bp October hike to 3% and a 100% probability of 3% by December. Silk
reiterated the RBNZ has no pre-set tightening path.
