JPMorgan's market intelligence team points out that with the US midterm elections approaching, the economy and cost of living have become the most pressing issues for voters. A Pew survey shows that 29% of respondents listed the economy as a major issue, with 15% directly mentioning the cost of living and affordability. Joyce Chang notes that since the Iran conflict, US gasoline prices have remained about 31% higher than before the conflict, putting pressure on Trump's economic approval rating.
Election pressure has begun to spill over into foreign policy. As war and energy costs weigh on public opinion, some Republican lawmakers have recently supported a bipartisan War Powers Resolution, demanding that the president seek congressional authorization for military action against Iran or end related military operations. For lawmakers facing re-election pressure, the political cost of continuing to bear high oil prices and a high cost of living is rising.
This means that in the coming months, oil and gasoline prices may become important variables for observing the pace of US-Iran policy. If energy costs remain high, the domestic political pressure on the White House and Congress may further increase; if oil prices fall significantly, policy constraints will ease accordingly.
