According to the latest data, the US added 162,000 non-farm payroll jobs in August, far exceeding the expected 56,000; private sector employment increased by 127,000 and manufacturing employment by 16,000, both significantly stronger than expected. More importantly, the July non-farm payroll figure was revised upward from -23,000 to +21,000, meaning that the most pessimistic "negative employment" signal has been significantly corrected.
The employment structure is also relatively strong: the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, the labor force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%, the U6 unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, and the average working hours rose to 34.4 hours; wages rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, without any significant cooling. Overall, this falls within the strong non-farm payroll range you're looking for, and directly reinforces Warsh's previous judgment that "the low job growth is more due to supply constraints than a collapse in demand." The previous ADP report of only 38,000 also indicates that it did not capture this significant rebound in official private sector employment.
This report has restored the hawkish pricing basis on the employment side, but the policy focus remains on the next CPI: employment is no longer a reason for easing policy, and inflation will determine the core of the policy debate in September.
