Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that the US dollar's share of global official foreign exchange reserves is expected to decline from 64% in 2015 to approximately 56% in 2025. However, looking at the distribution by country, the number of countries increasing and decreasing their dollar holdings has been roughly equal across multiple four-year observation windows, indicating that most central banks have not simultaneously reduced their dollar holdings.
It is important to note that this conclusion is based on data up to the end of 2025. The next step is to observe whether the dollar's share of reserves continues to decline by the end of 2026, and whether this reduction spreads from a few large reserve-holding countries to more central banks, in order to determine whether de-dollarization is transitioning from a localized adjustment to a broader trend.
