The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)'s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) and El Niño/La Niña Update indicate that driven by a strong El Niño phenomenon and abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, the world is facing a profound reshaping of temperature and precipitation patterns.
Regarding temperature forecasts, the report predicts that surface temperatures in most land areas globally will likely be higher than the average for the same period. Against the backdrop of a strong El Niño effect and global warming, mid-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere (such as North America, Europe, and parts of East Asia) are showing a highly consistent warming trend, with a significant increase in the frequency of heat waves and extreme heat waves. The widespread abnormal warming of global oceans is also continuously transferring heat energy into the atmosphere, making this climate cycle extremely destructive and potentially even directly pushing global average temperatures to break historical records in recent years.
Regarding precipitation patterns, global rainfall exhibits significant polarization and extreme characteristics. On the one hand, influenced by rising sea surface temperatures and abnormal atmospheric circulation in the southeastern Pacific, southern America (such as Peru, Ecuador, and the southern United States) and East Africa, affected by the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), will experience significantly higher than average rainfall, facing extremely high risks of torrential rains and flooding. On the other hand, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, and the Indian monsoon region are threatened by severe drought, with persistently low rainfall leading to water shortages and a surge in the risk of forest fires. Meanwhile, the Brazilian Amazon basin and the Caribbean coast are also facing severe drought.
