Stephen Zunes, founding director of Middle East studies at the University of San Francisco
Francisco, says Iran’s plan to designate a restricted zone in the Strait of
Hormuz may be linked to a transit-channel agreement under negotiation with Oman.
If an Oman deal is feasible and acceptable to the US, Iran could scale back
enforcement; if not, Tehran appears prepared to enforce the zone, making US
rejection of the pact more difficult. A designated restricted area would expand
the patrol and policing area for US forces and could deter shipowners and
insurers from transiting the waterway, raising risk premia, insurance costs or
rerouting. Gulf neighbors have a direct interest; if an Iran‑Oman agreement
materially boosts shipping throughput they may support it — including via
transit fees — and Oman and other Gulf states have been consulting on shaping
Oman's position.
